Strong supervision has been the key tone of the 2018 economic work

上一篇 / 下一篇  2018-01-09 16:14:23 / 個人分類:财经

Phoenix net finance and finance January 9th forecast 2018, what way will China's economy go out? At the end of 2017, the nineteen sessions, the Central Political Bureau meeting and the central economic work conference all mentioned the three major battle to win, prevent and resolve major risks, eliminate poverty accurately and prevent pollution.


What are the risks that the Chinese economy is facing at present? What is the overall economic expectation in 2018? finance interview with Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. managing director and chief economist Shen Jianguang on the 2018 China economy.


Shen Jianguang pointed out that China state-owned economy is currently facing the high leverage, "zombie enterprises" market clearing slow six risks; whether the next step will start the central bank interest rate hike, it pointed out that in the background of the current market interest rates, floating interest rate restrictions have been put off, the benchmark interest rate market adjustment has limited significance. At the level of RMB exchange rate, it is expected that the RMB will be appreciating slightly against the US dollar, with a median of about 6.4, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable.


The following is the Fenghuang network finance and economics interview.


Phoenix net finance and Economics: what are the major macroeconomic problems to be solved in 2018 in China? What are the important tasks in the economic field?


Shen Jianguang: Nineteen report has focused and policy 2018 macroeconomic work guidelines are given, from now to 2020, we must resolutely fight to prevent and resolve risks, precise poverty, pollution prevention and control of the battle, seeking a better quality of growth rather than the pursuit of growth has become a new consensus. Therefore, it is estimated that economic policy will focus more on income distribution, environmental problems and real estate problems in 2018, and fiscal and tax reform. and SOE reform. will also accelerate.


In addition, after nineteen, President Zhou Xiaochuan has concentrated tough stance on the financial risk, the financial supervision and the market is expected to come earlier than the storm, a series of strong regulatory measures introduced intensive, from the stable development committee of the State Council and the establishment of financial arrangements, to the asset management business, the Internet released new regulations to enhance financial supervision, to real estate strict capital controls, fully prove the firm determination to continue to leverage the decision-making, also means that the strong supervision is an important economic work next tone.


Fenghuang network finance and Economics: the central economic work conference put forward to prevent and resolve major risks, focus on the prevention and control of financial risks. What risks do you think China's economy is facing at present?


Shen Jianguang: the main risk facing the current Chinese reflects in: one is the entity enterprise sector leverage is too high, too fast expansion of the financial sector and the risk of credit; two is the lack of supervision of Internet financial, there is a higher risk P2P, cash loans and other fields; three state-owned enterprises leverage high risk market clearing zombie companies "slow; four is the field of real estate price hikes in the early accumulation of real estate bubble, but also pushed up the cost of rent, inhibit innovation; the five is the risk of lack of coordination of supervision; six is the local government debt risk.


Phoenix net finance: is it possible to continue the sound and neutral tone of the monetary policy in 2018? Besides, the Fed will increase interest rate three times this year. Will the central bank initiate asymmetric interest rate increase? That is, the increase of the deposit benchmark interest rate, but the lending benchmark interest rate remains unchanged. What kind of response do you expect the central bank to have?


Shen Jianguang: in 2018, a steady and neutral monetary policy was maintained, but it is expected that monetary policy will be firmly in practice. From the perspective of China's domestic economy, the deepening of deleveraging and the general requirements of three major battles after the nineteen big scale also need China's monetary policy to tighten up so as to shoulder the important responsibility of preventing systemic risks and supporting further reforms. From the external environment, in 2018, when the global monetary policy was tightened simultaneously, especially when the Fed increased its interest rate expectations, China would also need to turn to a tight monetary policy because of the stable interest rate and the prevention of large-scale capital outflows.


As to whether the interest rate increases will be started, there is a misunderstanding on the market, that is, only raising the benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan is to increase interest rates. But in my view, under the current interest rate marketization background, the floating limit of deposit and loan interest rate has been liberalized, and the adjustment of the benchmark interest rate market has been limited. After all, in practice, commercial banks have floated their deposit and loan interest rates on their own bank credit market according to the cost of funds.


At the same time, in recent years the central bank should pay more attention to the transformation of the monetary policy framework, monetary policy operations last year, through the up regulation of the money market interest rate, reverse repurchase, SLF or MLF operations, and then transfer to the bond market and the credit market to achieve the goal of ascension to guide market interest rates. From this perspective, although the central bank has not adjusted the benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan for 17 years, but under the background of deleveraging, the open market operation interest rate and MLF interest rate have been uplink many times. In December 2017, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the Central Bank of China once again raised the 5 basis points of counter repurchase and MLF operation rates as a response measure, which is actually a new interest rate raising measure under the new monetary policy framework.


Phoenix net finance and Economics: in 2017, the monetary policy reached a new low in succession. In October, it reached 8.8%, and it began to recover in November. How much would M2 expect in 2018?


Shen Jianguang: the growth target of M2 in 2018 is set at 10%, which is about two percentage points lower than the 12% in 2017, which embodies the goods.






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  • 建立時間: 2017-09-11
  • 更新時間: 2018-01-09


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